The Washington meeting between Armenia and Azerbaijan, hosted by President Donald Trump on August 8, 2025, may go down as a pivotal moment in the geopolitics of the Caspian and the wider Eurasian space. While on the surface the talks aimed to normalize relations between the two South Caucasus neighbors, the ripple effects extend far beyond bilateral reconciliation. For Azerbaijan, the meeting is not only about ending three decades of conflict with Armenia but also about positioning itself as a central bridge linking the Caspian Basin, Central Asia, and even Europe.
The Caspian region has always been a security crossroads, where energy interests, military presence, and trade routes overlap. Russia’s war in Ukraine, the Iran-Israel conflict, and shifting Western engagement have made the region more volatile. In this context, a potential Armenia-Azerbaijan settlement offers a chance to stabilize the South Caucasus – the natural gateway between the Caspian and Europe.
For Azerbaijan, peace with Armenia would solidify its position in the region where Baku has promoted several important transregional projects such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, the Southern Gas Corridor, and the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway. Azerbaijan is heavily investing in the development of the Caspian trade routes, energy infrastructure, and regional connectivity projects such as the Middle Corridor. Stability in the South Caucasus also makes it harder for external actors to exploit divisions – an especially significant factor given the previous attempt to exploit Armenia against Azerbaijan and Türkiye. That strategy brought no tangible results to Armenia, which remained regionally isolated and dependent on Russia. After the military defeats in 2020 and 2023, the Armenian leadership realized that peace and respect for the principle of territorial integrity is a much greater opportunity for the country rather than an irredentist project, which Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan dubbed “mythical.”
At the same time, a peace framework reduces the risk of military escalation spilling into the Caspian region. Naval modernization efforts by Russia and Iran in recent years have heightened anxieties. In short, normalization indirectly enhances Azerbaijan’s capacity to act as a stabilizing actor within the Caspian basin.
Increasingly, Iran has also spoken about peace and cooperation, especially with Azerbaijan. Relations were tense a few years ago, but the incumbent President, Masud Pezeshkian, questioned the strategy employed previously by the Iranian clerics regarding Azerbaijan, which failed to gain any benefits.
Perhaps the most significant geopolitical dividend for Azerbaijan lies eastward, across the Caspian. The Central Asian states – Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan – have long sought secure, diversified links to Europe. Russia’s war has made northern routes through its territory unreliable, while instability in the Red Sea undermines the traditional supply route. That leaves the Trans-Caspian link through Azerbaijan as promising.
The Washington meeting, by promoting the peace agenda, reassures Central Asian partners that Baku is a reliable hub. Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan signed an MOU about the transfer of alternative energy sources to Europe through another potential project – a Black Sea electricity cable from Georgia to Romania and Hungary.
Azerbaijan is trying to move away from a rivalry paradigm to connecting dots – Baku has signed a strategic partnership agreement with China. In the meantime, Azerbaijan’s deepening ties with Türkiye and other Turkic brethren in the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) position it as a natural connector for Central Asia. Baku is also keen on advancing the 5+1 format with Central Asia and other regional platforms such as CICA and ECO.
The fact that the 8 August 2025 meeting was hosted in Washington adds an important dimension despite the uncertain geopolitical situation in Eurasia. For Azerbaijan, U.S. involvement strengthens its hand in showcasing that peace in the South Caucasus is not merely a local issue but one tied to the broader Western strategy of diversifying energy and trade. Central Asian leaders will view U.S. backing of Azerbaijan as an endorsement of the Trans-Caspian route. An important element of the Washington meeting is the so-called TRIPP – Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity – which will run through the territory of Armenia and connect Azerbaijan’s mainland with its Nakhchivan exclave. It resolves the disagreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, while potentially opening up the opportunity for a wider connectivity network.
The 8 August 2025 Washington meeting was about more than reconciliation between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It was about reconfiguring the strategic landscape of the Caspian region. For Azerbaijan, it opened a broader perspective in both the West and the East, including anchoring itself as an important bridge to and from Central Asia.
If the momentum holds, Baku could emerge not only as a key energy and transit hub but also as a political actor capable of shaping Eurasian politics through a peace agenda. Much, of course, depends on whether agreements reached in Washington translate into tangible results on the ground. For Armenia, in its turn, it will mean the end of isolation and dependence. But one thing is clear: the implications of this meeting stretch far beyond the Caucasus – they reach across the Caspian and into the very heart of Central Asia. It should be viewed, however, not as geopolitical rivalry, but as an invitation to all parties that are willing to act in good faith.
https://timesca.com/opinion-washington-meeting-and-the-shifting-geopolitics-of-the-caspian/
