Throughout the entire post-Soviet period, the South Caucasus was described as lacking a cohesive “regional” identity in the traditional sense. It was a result of fragmantation of this region amongst the three countries (i.e., Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia) which adopted often opposing geopolitical orientation and lacked any consolidated cooperation amongst themselves. There were numerous efforts to change this picture and launch interactions and cooperation amongst the three countries, sometimes in formats that alsoincluded the countries surrounding the South Caucasus.
In the late 1990s, leaders in the South Caucasus recognized the need for a regional institution to foster cooperation based on mutual respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty, aiming to achieve peace and unlock economic potential. Former Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze proposed a “Peaceful Caucasus” initiative to enhance cooperation among Caucasian countries, which laid the groundwork for future discussions.In November 1999, Azerbaijan’s President Heydar Aliyev, during the OSCE summit in Istanbul, proposed a “Caucasus Stability Pact” to address regional issues and promote peace and stability, supported by Turkish President Suleyman Demirel and joined by Armenian President Robert Kocharyan and President Shevardnadze. This pact aimed to involve the South Caucasus countries, the European Union, and the United States, focusing on security, conflict resolution, economic cooperation, and democratic reforms.
Despite this collaborative spirit, significant obstacles persisted. President Heydar Aliyev emphasized that any agreement hinged on resolving the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, particularly Armenia’s withdrawal from occupied Azerbaijani territories. However, the parties failed to make progress, with Azerbaijan unwilling to engage with Armenia while 20% of its internationally recognized territory remained under occupation.
The Second Karabakh War brought about a fundamental shift in this situation. The war which lasted from September 27 to November 10 in 2020 put an end to Armenia’s occupation of the internationally recognized territories of Azerbaijan. Immediately after the war, Azerbaijan extended its hand of peace to Armenia and put forward some initiatives that would create a peaceful and stable security environment in the South Caucasus. The conditions for such regional initiatives were positively affected by the collapse of the separatist regime in the Karabagh region of Azerbaijan in September 2023 which completed the de-occupation process of the country’s occupied territories. This has effectively brought an end to the decades-long conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the mentioned region.
The mutual recognition each other’s territorial integrityby the two countries, and in particular, Armenia's recognition of Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, has laid a strong foundation for a more stable and peaceful future between the two nations. The latest statement by the Armenian parliamentary speaker Alen Simonyan on October 22 concerning Armenia’s recognition of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity including the Karabagh region and his earlier emphasis that “The Karabagh issue no longer exists for Yerevan” promise more constructive developments in the future.
These positive dynamics between the two countries create a good basis also for the integration amongst the three countries of the South Caucasus. Several initiatives towards this purpose have been introduced by different actors since the end of the Second Karabakh War (September 27 – November 10, 2020). One significant initiative in this context is the 3+3 regional cooperation platform which is supposed to include Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia “plus” Russia, Turkiye, and Iran. As Georgia has refused to take part in this format due to understandable reasons, the 3+3 format has so far limited potential to drive fully-fledged cooperation amongst the three countries of the South Caucasus.
Therefore, Azerbaijan and Georgia have been considering another initiative which aims to create a trilateral format of the three countries of the South Caucasus. This is of extreme importance for the peace and security of the region, as well as its economy, connectivity, and prosperity. Historically, various external powers pursued “divide and rule” strategy vis-à-vis the countries of the South Caucasus and manipulated the regional conflicts for their own interests. On the one hand, this intervention created new tensions and animosity amongst the local nations, on the other hand it undermined the efforts of these peoples to resolve their disputes. Against this backdrop, the leaders of these countries never met trilaterally in the entire post-Soviet period, although they came together in other multilateral platforms.
Despite various initiatives from Azerbaijan and Georgia to convene a meeting among the leaders of the three countries following the Second Karabakh War, the Armenian leadership exhibited consistent and, for unclear reasons, cautious behavior toward this trilateral format initiative. Against this backdrop, the Munich Security Conference in February 2023 presented a favorable opportunity for the leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia to come together on a panel addressing the South Caucasus. However, the Armenian prime minister opted not to participate alongside his counterparts from Azerbaijan and Georgia. A notable exception to this trend took place in July of the previous year when the Armenian foreign minister visited Tbilisi to engage in a bilateral format meeting with his Azerbaijani counterpart for the first time.
However, subsequent to this visit, there were no leaders’ summits or significant peace talks in Georgia, nor were there any trilateral initiatives until October 2023. This timing coincided with the dissolution of the separatist regime in Azerbaijan's Karabakh region. The successful outcome of Azerbaijan's efforts against the separatists and the restoration of the country's territorial integrity played a positive role in advancing this diplomatic process.President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan emphatically highlighted this stance in his address to the nation following his country’s military triumph over separatists in the Karabakh region on September 20, 2023:
“We propose that the future of South Caucasus countries should be based on peace, tranquility and development. …[T]he day is not far when Azerbaijan and Armenia will settle the issues between them, sign a peace treaty, and countries of the South Caucasus start working on future cooperation in a trilateral format.”
This approach was supported by the Georgian Prime Minister Garibashvili who, in his press conference with President Aliyev following the latter’s visit to Tbilisi on October 8, 2023 stated that “Our future should be peaceful and stable, and all three countries of the South Caucasus should address regional issues themselves.” President Aliyev expressed his endorsement of this approach, affirming that his country views Georgia also as a more suitable venue for the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace talks.
In its aftermath, the first ever meeting amongst the prime ministers of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan took place on October 26, 2023 on the sidelines of the Silk Road Forum in Tbilisi. This was a historic event that raised hopes in the region. The three prime ministers gave positive messages about the future of the region and outlined their proposals towards this goal. Unfortunately, over the past year since the October 2023 trilateral meeting, we did not see any follow-up in this format. It is, however, a fact that there is now a historic chance for tangible moves in this direction of regional integration thanks to the resolution of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict and the liberation of the latter’s occupied territories.The three countries need to seize this momentum, convene more high-level meetings, and implement tangible steps towards fostering integration in the South Caucasus.
Undoubtedly, this initiative for building a trilateral format of cooperation amongst the three countries of the South Caucasus faces numerous challenges. Nevertheless, for the sake of peace and security in this region, efforts toward regional integration are of paramount importance. It is essential for the countries of the South Caucasus to overcome their differences and work together to build a prosperous and secure future, grounded in mutual recognition of each other’s territorial integrity and a commitment to understanding each other’s concerns and interests.
