As the people of Azerbaijan rejoiced in the liberation of their territories, and the world absorbed Baku's triumph in Karabakh, attention turned to the government's announcement of early presidential elections. Exercising the authority vested by Article 101 of the country’s Constitution, Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev issued a resolution on Dec. 7 to conduct the elections on Feb. 7.
Azerbaijan operates under a presidential system, as outlined in its Constitution, where the president serves a seven-year term. To secure the presidency, a candidate must gather more than half of the votes. Suppose no candidate achieves this majority in the initial election. In that case, the top two contenders proceed to a second round, with the candidate receiving the most votes in that round ultimately securing the presidency. A person can be a candidate twice under the 2016 constitutional amendment. Following this constitutional amendment, Ilham Aliyev was elected president in 2018 and now has the right to run for a second term.
There have been ongoing discussions of having early parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan in 2023. The Central Election Commission's budget was doubled for 2024, raising expectations for early parliamentary elections. In fact, with the establishment of sovereignty over all of Karabakh on Sept. 19, the idea of organizing elections in this territory appeared. As a result, while parliamentary elections were being planned, the decision to hold early presidential elections came as a surprise.
Baku's dual goals
From Azerbaijan's perspective, there are two reasons why these elections will take place. The first is to maintain Azerbaijan's position in continuing discussions about the new world order. The second goal is to secure a victory in Karabakh diplomatically.
The victory in Karabakh was considered by many to be the result of President Aliyev's effective strategy. In this perspective, the Karabakh Victory corresponded with a time in which the region's elements were rearranged and a new order was formed. During this time, Azerbaijan adopted a successful approach not just in the Karabakh dispute, but also in the region's continuing geopolitical rivalry, and its strategic importance grew.
He effectively filled the geopolitical gaps left by the Russian-Ukrainian war, led the 120-member Non-Aligned Movement and chose to institutionalize the Movement, transforming it from an ineffective to an effective structure.
He achieved significant success as one of the four founders of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS). He followed an approach of turning the excitement created by the Karabakh Victory for OTS into power. After the victory in Karabakh, the OTS, which President Ilham Aliyev termed a priority for foreign policy, has strengthened its effectiveness throughout the region. Following the Russian-Ukrainian war, the significance of OTS geography rose once more. President Aliyev supported and carried out a strategy to convert the OTS into an autonomous and effective player in Eurasian matters. As a result, during the most recent Samarkand meeting, President Aliyev proposed military-industrial and defense cooperation.
During this turbulent era, President Aliyev prioritized projects such as the 29th Conference of the Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29), which will be held in Azerbaijan this year, following the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The hosting of this summit in Azerbaijan is due to the country's willingness to contribute to the solution of global problems, and it will have a significant impact on the country's image.
Post-Karabakh liberation
The Karabakh Victory created a new situation in the region from different perspectives. A region where elections had not been held for the last 30 years was liberated from occupation, and elections must be held here too. This may be a legal requirement.
Azerbaijan, on the other hand, achieved victory in Karabakh, but peace negotiations with Armenia continue under difficult conditions. Unfair demands are being made, as well as constant diplomatic attacks on Azerbaijan. The victory in Karabakh is seen as the result of the effective policy of President Ilham Aliyev not only within the country but also abroad. Although this achievement was met with praise and support from friendly countries, it faced jealousy and constant attacks from opponents. In this situation, some argue that new elections will restore public confidence in the face of attacks on President Ilham Aliyev.
On the other hand, during Ilham Aliyev's tenure, Azerbaijan became one of the states that contributed to regional cooperation, global transport and energy security. Azerbaijan is open to cooperation with everyone, under the condition that such partnerships respect its established red lines concerning national security. There may also be a need for a regional update. In fact, over the past three years, elections have been held in three countries in the region after the victory in Karabakh in 2020. Elections were held in Armenia and Iran in 2021, and in Türkiye in 2023. Elections will be held in Russia in March 2024 and Georgia in October. Thus, the February elections will be an election year for the region.
In recent years, President Aliyev has made major updates to the country's foreign and domestic policies. In this context, Aliyev’s effective solution to the main issue of the country’s national security can be interpreted as an increase in confidence in the continuation of domestic political reforms in the future.
