2025 is coming to an end. It has brought new developments into the normalization processes not only between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but also between Armenia and Türkiye. These processes can lead to the transformation of the entire South Caucasus region in the coming years. Let’s underline the major highlights of 2025:

First of all, thanks to the direct bilateral talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia on March 13, 2025 the text of the “The Agreement on the Establishment of Peace and Interstate Relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia” (hereinafter “peace agreement”) was finalized by both states.

Secondly, on June 20, 2025, a meeting was held in Istanbul between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who arrived in Türkiye on a working visit. Announcing this visit to the media, the Speaker of the Armenian Parliament, Alen Simonyan, called it “historic,” as it would be “the first time a head of the Republic of Armenia had visited Türkiye at this level.”[i] Indeed, as Ragip Soylu pointed out, “while Pashinyan attended Erdogan’s presidential inauguration in June 2023 and the two leaders have met at several international summits since then, this marks his first official visit to Turkey.”[ii]

Following the collapse of the USSR, Türkiye was one of the first countries to recognize the independence of Armenia. However, because of the latter’s armed conflict with Azerbaijan and the occupation of the Kelbajar district of Azerbaijan in 1993, the process of establishing full-fledged diplomatic relations was suspended, and the land border between the two countries has been closed since that time. Another key obstacle to normalizing relations with Ankara remains Yerevan’s policy of achieving international recognition of the events of 1915 in the Ottoman Empire as a so-called “Armenian genocide.”

More recently, the result of the Second Karabakh War, which radically changed the balance of power in the region, has affected the prospects for normalizing relations between these two states. Therefore, two Special Representatives for the Normalization process between Türkiye and Armenia were appointed: Ambassador Serdar Kılıç and Deputy Speaker of the Armenian Parliament Ruben Rubinyan. They have held six meetings since 2022, during which time discussions concerned the issues of citizens of third countries crossing the Armenia–Türkiye land border, simplifying visa procedures for holders of diplomatic and service passports, and ensuring direct air transportation of goods between Armenia and Türkiye. At the last sixth meeting held in Yerevan on 12 September 2025 the Special Representatives confirmed the mutual understanding reached in their previous meetings, agreed to speed up the arrangements on border crossings as well as “decided to carry out the necessary work for the rehabilitation of the Kars-Gyumri railway line and the electricity interconnector[iii].

Thirdly, high-level talks took place in Abu Dhabi between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on July 10, 2025. Several issues including the opening of the Zangazur corridor, delimitation and demarcation of the Armenian–Azerbaijani border, initialing peace agreement and other issues were discussed at this meeting. According to a press release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan, it was a result-oriented dialogue and “the leaders, taking stock of the progress made with respect to border delimitation process, instructed the respective state commissions to continue practical work in this regard. The sides also agreed to continue bilaterial negotiations and confidence-building measures between the two countries”[iv].

Fourthly, on August 8, 2025 an unprecedented summit was held at the White House between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, and U.S. President Donald Trump. This event has given a new impetus to both the deepening of the bilateral relations of Azerbaijan and Armenia with the United States and accelerating the normalization process between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Within the framework of this meeting a number of bilateral and trilateral documents were signed.

At the bilateral level, both Azerbaijan and Armenia have signed corresponding documents with the United States.

First and foremost, Azerbaijan and the United States have signed a Memorandum of Understanding on the Establishment of a Strategic Working Group to develop the Charter on Strategic Partnership between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the United States of America. It is envisaged that the newly established group will work on expanding regional connectivity, including energy, trade and transit; boosting energy investments, including artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure and supporting security cooperation, including defense sales and joint efforts in combating terrorism.

At the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump signed a document suspending the implementation of Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act. Adopted by the U.S. Congress in 1992 this biased legislative act prohibited direct U.S. government assistance to Azerbaijan[v].

On the other hand, three bilateral memoranda were signed between Armenia and the United States “concerning cooperation on the Armenian Government’s “Crossroads of Peace” initiative, as well as in the fields of energy cooperation and artificial intelligence. These memoranda stem from provisions of the Charter on Strategic Partnership signed back in January between Armenia and the United States”[vi].

Moreover, significant progress has been made towards the Armenian–Azerbaijani normalization process at the Washington summit. In presence of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, the President of the United States of America and the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia initialed the 17-point agreed upon text of the peace agreement[vii] It is important to note that initialing an agreement is a distinct and preliminary stage before signing of an agreement. The foreign ministers also jointly appealed to the Chairperson-in-Office on the closure of OSCE’s Minsk Process and related structures.

At the trilateral level, Ilham Aliyev, President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Donald Trump, President of the United States of America, and Nikol Pashinyan, Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, signed the Joint Declaration on the meeting between the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia held in Washington D.C.[viii]. It is essential to point out that the first clause of this document emphasizes “the need to continue further actions to achieve the signing and ultimate ratification of the Agreement”, which clearly indicates the necessity of making an amendment to the Armenian Constitution.

At the same time, the importance of opening of communications between the two states has been reflected in the Declaration. It is envisioned that the efforts should be made to establish “unimpeded connectivity between the main part of the Republic of Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic through the territory of the Republic of Armenia with reciprocal benefits for international and intrastate connectivity for the Republic of Armenia”. For this purpose, “Armenia will work with the United States of America and mutually determined third parties, to set forth a framework for the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) connectivity project in the territory of the Republic of Armenia”.

The Declaration also confirms “the need to chart a course for a bright future not bound by the conflict of the past, consistent with the Charter of the United Nations and the 1991 Almaty Declaration”. It is emphasized that the conditions have been created to “build good neighborly relations on the basis of the inviolability of international borders and the inadmissibility of the use of force for the acquisition of territory after the conflict”.

Thus, in a nutshell, the Washington Summit can be considered a significant breakthrough in the Armenia–Azerbaijan normalization process.

In its turn, Türkiye’s foreign ministry welcomed the progress achieved towards lasting peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia in Washington D.C. The press release stated that “a historic opportunity has emerged for the South Caucasus to attain peace and prosperity. As Türkiye, we will continue to contribute to the efforts aimed at realizing this opportunity and support the dedicated endeavors of our brotherly Azerbaijan”[ix].

At the same time, on August 9, 2025 during the phone conversation with President of the Republic of Türkiye Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev underlined “the special role of U.S. President Donald Trump in achieving these outcomes and expressed confidence that the establishment of unimpeded transport links between Azerbaijan’s mainland and its Nakhchivan region would contribute to the prosperity of the entire region”[x]. President Aliyev also paid tribute to the role played by President Erdoğan and Türkiye in the normalization process between Armenia and Azerbaijan. “President Erdoğan congratulated President Ilham Aliyev for his leadership in advancing the regional peace agenda, reaffirming Türkiye’s unwavering support for peace and stability in the region”[xi].

Two days later, on August 11, 2025 Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan made a call to President of the Republic of Türkiye Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. During the phone conversation President Erdoğan congratulated Prime Minister Pashinyan on the agreement reached between Armenia and Azerbaijan and stressed that “this step taken should now be translated into concrete actions”. Furthermore, President Erdoğan added that “the talks will continue at a technical level to carry forward the normalization process between Türkiye and Armenia”[xii].

In an address to the nation on August 18, 2025, Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan called Washington Agreements a transformative opportunity for Armenia. According to him, “after August 8, we live in a completely different South Caucasus, in a new Republic of Armenia. Peace is an unfamiliar reality and an alien life for us; let’s not underestimate this reality. We must learn from scratch what it means to live in peace, what peace is like”[xiii].

Fifth, on October 21, 2025 Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev announced the lifting of all restrictions on cargo transit to Armenia during a joint press statement with President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev[xiv]. Lifting the transit ban was a demonstration of goodwill and as President Aliyev said it proves that “peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia exists not only on paper but also in practice”[xv]

Furthermore, Armenia received its first cargo shipment – a train carrying more than 1,000 tons of Russian wheat passing through Azerbaijani and Georgian territory on November 5, 2025[xvi]. Another shipment of wheat from Kazakhstan arrived to Armenia on November 8, 2025[xvii]. Thus, it should be noted that Pashinian’s office called these new developments essential and underlined that “the lifting of restrictions on cargo transportation to Armenia is an important step by Azerbaijan toward restoring regional communications and promoting economic cooperation,” the statement said[xviii].

Sixth, on November 30, 2025 the OSCE’s Minsk Process and its related structures were formally dissolved following a September 1, 2025 Ministerial Council decision[xix]. This closure has nullified previous related OSCE decisions and confirmed a new diplomatic reality, where Armenia and Azerbaijan do not require any mediators and they can pursue a direct dialogue.

However, it is worth recalling that the next parliamentary elections in Armenia are planned for June 7, 2026[xx]. Undoubtedly, the issue of the country’s foreign policy priorities, including the future of Turkish–Armenian and Armenian–Azerbaijani relations, will be one of the central issues in the pre-election discussions.

In fact, for many years, the Armenian foreign policy discourse was based on the country’s relations with a triad of actors – Russia, the West, and Türkiye – with representatives of the so-called ‘pro-Western’ and ‘pro-Russian’ camps merely exploiting the traditional perception of Türkiye as the main threat to Armenia’s security. Obviously, this approach no longer takes into account the reality that has developed in the region, in which normalizing relations with Türkiye and Azerbaijan is becoming an urgent task for any Armenian government, regardless of its geopolitical preferences.

However, judging by the latest events in Armenia, the permanent confrontation with the parliamentary opposition has been compounded by conflicts between the government and such influential actors as the Armenian Apostolic Church[xxi], arrested Samvel Karapetyan, the businessman and head of the Tashir Group, who also holds Russian citizenship[xxii] and others. Apparently, a great deal depends on whether or not Armenia’s fragmented society will be able to support the efforts of the Pashinyan government toward the establishment of peace and inter-state relations with Azerbaijan as well as with Türkiye[xxiii].

In 2026 it has also been envisaged that Armenia has to address an important condition proposed by the Azerbaijani side which is about changing the controversial preamble in the Constitution of Armenia referring to the 1990 Declaration of Independence in which there are territorial claims against Azerbaijan and Türkiye. This is a key precondition for signing a lasting peace treaty. Simultaneously, a Constitutional Reform Council is currently in the process of drafting a new Constitution of Armenia that will be put to vote during a subsequent referendum. This could be a good opportunity to remove corresponding references to the above-mentioned Declaration of Independence.

On the other hand, Azerbaijan as well as leading the peace agenda is also currently dealing with the heavy legacy of the former conflict – rebuilding ruined cities, towns and villages of Karabakh and Eastern Zangazur economic regions which are also heavily contaminated with mines as well as trying to gradually resettle around 800,000 IDPs who are eager to return to their homes. As it was stated by Hikmat Hajiyev, the Assistant of the President of Azerbaijan, the Head of Foreign Policy Affairs Department of the Presidential Administration, “Azerbaijan won the war and now wants to win the peace”[xxiv].

Thus, today, the future of the South Caucasus region depends on the outcome of the Armenia–Azerbaijan and Armenia-Türkiye normalization processes as well as the evolving strategies of global and regional powers. The next two to three years will be decisive in determining whether this region becomes a platform for integration and cooperation, or a new arena for great power competition.

https://transatlanticpolicy.com/moving-towards-the-common-future-stepping-into-a-breakthrough/

References

[i]Armenian PM to arrive in Türkiye for historic visit. Dailysabah.com, 20 June 2025 – https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/diplomacy/armenian-pm-to-arrive-in-turkiye-for-åhistoric-visit

[ii] Ragip Soylu. Armenia’s Pashinyan makes history with first official visit to Turkey. Middleeasteye.net, 20 June 2025 – https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/armenias-pashinyan-makes-history-first-official-visit-turkey

[iii] Tuğçe Tecimer. A new stage in the Türkiye-Armenia normalization process: The Yerevan meeting. Commentary. 16 October 2025, No: 2025 / 46, AVIM, Center for Eurasian Studies – https://avim.org.tr/en/Yorum/A-NEW-STAGE-IN-THE-TURKIYE-ARMENIA-NORMALIZATION-PROCESS-THE-YEREVAN-MEETING#_ftn1

[iv] No:304/25, Press-Release of Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the outcome of the meeting between the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia held in Abu-Dhabi, United Arab Emirates – https://mfa.gov.az/en/news/no30425

[v] Documents to be signed during Azerbaijani President’s U.S. visit: From cooperation to strategic partnership. Apa.az, 08 August 2025 -https://en.apa.az/foreign-policy/documents-to-be-signed-during-azerbaijani-presidents-us-visit-from-cooperation-to-strategic-partnership-474543  

[vi] Tigran Grigoryan. The White House Talks Between Armenia and Azerbaijan: Key Outcomes. Civilnet.am, 09 August 2025.

[vii] Agreement on Establishment of Peace and Inter-State Relations between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia – https://mfa.gov.az/files/Birge%20Beyanname-ABS/Initialed%20Peace%20Agreement%20(EN).pdf

[viii] Joint Declaration signed on meeting between President of Azerbaijan and Prime Minister of Armenia held in Washington. 09 August 2025 – https://president.az/en/articles/view/69572

[ix]No: 167, 8 August 2025, Regarding the Peace Process Between Azerbaijan and Armenia. – https://www.mfa.gov.tr/no_-167_-azerbaycan-ve-ermenistan-arasindaki-baris-sureci-hk.en.mfa

[x] President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev made a phone call to President of the Republic of Türkiye Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, 9 August 2025 – https://president.az/en/articles/view/69578

[xi] Ibid.

[xii]President Erdoğan, Prime Minister Pashinyan of Armenia talk over phone. 11 August 2025 – https://www.iletisim.gov.tr/english/haberler/detay/president-erdogan-prime-minister-pashinyan-of-armenia-talk-over-phone-11-08-25

[xiii] Pashinyan declares peace between Armenia, Azerbaijan following White House summit. -Caliber.az, 18 August, 2025 – https://caliber.az/en/post/pashinyan-declares-peace-between-armenia-azerbaijan-following-white-house-summit

[xiv] Azerbaijan lifts curbs on cargo transit to Armenia in sign of growing peace. Reuters.com, 21 October 2025 – https://www.reuters.com/world/azerbaijan-lifts-curbs-cargo-transit-armenia-sign-growing-peace-2025-10-21/

[xv]Azerbaijan lifts all restrictions on transit of goods to Armenia – President Ilham Aliyev. Trend.az, 21 October, 2025 – https://www.trend.az/azerbaijan/politics/4106770.html

[xvi]First Cargo In Decades Arrives In Armenia Via Azerbaijan. Azatutyun.az, 6 November 2025 – https://www.azatutyun.am/a/33582803.html

[xvii]Kazakh grain shipment reaches Armenia via Azerbaijan. Caliber.az, 8 November, 2025 -https://caliber.az/en/post/kazakh-grain-shipment-reaches-armenia-via-azerbaijan  

[xviii]First Cargo In Decades Arrives In Armenia Via Azerbaijan. Azatutyun.az, 6 November 2025 – https://www.azatutyun.am/a/33582803.html

[xix]OSCE completes closure of Minsk Process and related structures. OSCE.org, 1 December 2025 – https://www.osce.org/secretariat/660952

[xx] Next Parliamentary elections will be held on June 7, 2026: Alen Simonyan. 1lurer.am, 7 June 2025 – https://www.1lurer.am/en/2025/06/07/Next-Parliamentary-elections-will-be-held-on-June-7-2026-Alen-Simonyan/1326754

[xxi] Armenia’s PM accuses head of Church of fathering child in febrile political row. BBC.com, 20 June 2025 – https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpd1qnq87jxo

[xxii]Samvel Karapetyan’s Public Church Support Triggers Police Search and Detention Reports. Caucasuswatch.de, 18 June 2025 – https://caucasuswatch.de/en/news/samvel-karapetyans-public-church-support-triggers-police-search-and-detention-reports.html

[xxiii]Gulshan Pashayeva.The Armenian-Azerbaijani bilateral track: From tangible results to a possible breakthrough. Modern Diplomacy, May 21, 2024 – https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2024/05/21/the-armenian-azerbaijani-bilateral-track-from-tangible-results-to-a-possible-breakthrough/

[xxiv]Hikmat Hajiyev: Azerbaijan, having won war, now winning in peace. Report.az, 8 November, 2025 – https://report.az/en/foreign-politics/hikmat-hajiyev-azerbaijan-having-won-war-now-winning-in-peac