Remarks by Dr Farid Shafiyev

Chairman of the Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center)

AZ–EU Think Tank Forum · Brussels · 27 October 2026

Excellencies, distinguished guests, dear colleagues and friends,

Let me begin by thanking the Egmont – Royal Institute for International Relations for co-organising this forum with the AIR Center. My special gratitude goes to Ambassador Bart Ouvry, Director General of Egmont, to Professor Sven Biscop, to Mr Bernard Siman, and to the whole Egmont team for their hospitality and for the excellent preparation of today’s discussions. I also thank all participants, many of whom have travelled to Brussels to be with us.

Relations between Azerbaijan and the European Union are experiencing a new momentum. This year, the most senior leaders of the European institutions – President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Council António Costa, and High Representative Kaja Kallas – have all visited Azerbaijan. Such a sequence of high-level visits within a single year speaks for itself. It reflects a shared recognition that our partnership matters, and that it matters more today than it did only a few years ago.

We hope that this new chapter will continue to unfold in two dimensions. First, in the form of new legal documents that reflect the real depth and breadth of our cooperation. Second, and no less importantly, in practical steps – projects, investments and initiatives that our citizens can see and feel.

We meet at a time when the South Caucasus finds itself in a very volatile geopolitical environment. To our north and to our south, wars are being waged. Our region lies between them, and it cannot afford to become a third theatre of instability. Preserving peace and stability in the South Caucasus is therefore not only in the interest of the countries of the region – it is in the interest of Europe as well.

This brings me to the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan. After decades of conflict, the two countries are closer than ever to a lasting peace. The text of the peace agreement has been agreed and initialled. What remains is a key condition for its signature: Armenia must remove from its Constitution the references that constitute territorial claims against Azerbaijan.

Some describe this as an excessive demand. I would invite our European friends to look at their own experience of peacemaking. The Good Friday Agreement was accompanied by a referendum in which Ireland amended its Constitution and withdrew its territorial claim. More recently, North Macedonia changed its Constitution following the Prespa Agreement – a process that was, notably, driven to a great extent by the expectations of the European Union itself. Constitutional clarity is not an obstacle to peace; it is the foundation on which durable peace is built. A treaty cannot coexist with a constitution that contradicts it.

In the meantime, work continues on other tracks: the delimitation of the state border, the opening of transport links, the first steps in trade, and a growing dialogue between experts and societies. These are not small matters. Each of them builds confidence and makes the return to confrontation less likely.

Let me be clear about the role of external actors. Azerbaijan does not see a need for third-party mediation – the two countries have demonstrated that they can negotiate directly and achieve results. At the same time, we warmly welcome contributions to the post-conflict agenda: the reconstruction of devastated territories, humanitarian demining – Azerbaijan remains one of the most mine-contaminated countries in the world – and the restoration of the railway connection to Nakhchivan. All of these can and should be seen as tangible contributions to normalisation, and the European Union has a meaningful role to play here.

Unfortunately, the peace process also has its spoilers, and they are quite numerous – both inside and outside Armenia. They include parts of the opposition, the leadership of the Armenian Church, and certain circles in the diaspora, which have found their way into the corridors of European politics. We hope that they will not succeed in derailing this historic opportunity. I would respectfully ask European policymakers to listen carefully and to distinguish between those who are building peace and those who are working against it. Ultimately, the responsibility rests with the governments of our two countries – and Azerbaijan has been, and remains, a promoter of peace.

Peace also needs an economic foundation. Large infrastructure projects can drive both reconciliation and development. Within the broader connectivity agenda, we look forward to the implementation of TRIPP – the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity – which will reconnect mainland Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan and open new routes across the region. We also expect deeper EU engagement in the development of the Middle Corridor linking Europe and Asia via the Caspian and the South Caucasus. Connectivity creates interdependence, and interdependence creates a shared stake in stability.

Energy remains an important pillar of our partnership. Azerbaijan has proven to be a reliable supplier of natural gas to Europe, including at the most difficult moments for European energy security. Now we need to define together the future contours of this cooperation – covering both hydrocarbons, which will remain part of the energy mix for years to come, and alternative sources, including renewable energy and green electricity corridors connecting the Caspian with European markets.

In conclusion, forums such as this one are important. They allow us to exchange ideas candidly, to formulate policy recommendations, and to advance joint research. The AIR Center is open to expanding its partnership with the experts and institutions present here today, and with all others who share an interest in a peaceful, connected and prosperous South Caucasus.

Thank you for your attention.