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Comments by AIR Center’s Chairman of the Board, Farid Shafiyev, on the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia - 04.11.2024

2024-11-04 18:31

At the threshold of COP29, there is an expectation regarding a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan. However, according to my source of information, some time ago, the Armenian side refused to sign a framework agreement. Instead, Armenia proposed to remove three articles from the current draft—these three issues related to the territorial claims in the Armenian Constitution regarding the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan, international legal warfare, and the deployment of third countries' forces in the Armenia-Azerbaijan borderland. The first of these three problems is fundamental to both the peace treaty and future security in the South Caucasus. Without the clearly expressed will of the Armenian people to remove any territorial claims concerning Azerbaijan, any future government in Armenia might resort to force to return to the pre-2020 situation. The second problem is a good indicator of the parties' goodwill to adhere to a peace process. It looks like while Armenia wishes to sign a chopped peace treaty, it wants to use third countries and the diaspora in the future to expand diplomatic and legal war. The third question is related to the current deployment of the EU civilian mission at the Armenian border, which can be transformed into a military one in the future. Taking into account that the EU turned a blind eye to the 30 years of the Armenian occupation of the Azerbaijani territories and was in a rush to deploy the mission without the Azerbaijani consent, it is clear that Azerbaijan cannot trust the EU, which is now on the side of the former aggressor state, which pillaged and destroyed the Azerbaijani territories. I have also heard some arguments that the peace treaty cannot guarantee any sustainable security, just like the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 failed to guarantee Ukraine's territorial integrity despite the written commitments from signatory parties. Thus, the only guarantee is the situation on the ground, which means that Armenia should be limited in its military capacity, i.e., demilitarized. Economic cooperation can bring additional elements of security to the South Caucasus, but there is a long way to achieve this, and, unfortunately, we see many emerging dividing lines in the region put by international actors.